Original research article
Identifying Key Environmental Factors and Modelling of the Potential Distribution of Carob Tree (Ceratonia siliqua L.) in Morocco Using Maximum Entropy Principle
2025, 90 (4) p. 297-307
Amal Labaioui, Ahmed Elbakkali
Abstract
The carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L.) is a truly drought-resistant species. Because of its ecological and economic value to Morocco, it is one of the target species in the government's program to develop Moroccan agriculture. Carob planting programs are expected to reach 125,000 ha by 2030. In order to guide new plantations, this work aims to model the current distribution of the carob tree in Morocco and to identify the environmental factors that influence this distribution. The maximum entropy approach was used. The model generated is of excellent quality (AUC = 0.981). The most significant environmental parameters affecting the distribution of carob trees in Morocco are rainfall in the coldest quarter, mean temperature in the coldest quarter, mean diurnal variation and altitude. The model was used to map the potential area based on current climatic conditions. This shows that a large area is suitable for the expansion and development of this tree. The current range represents only 1.5% of the suitable habitat for this species. These findings could assist managers in more effectively identifying appropriate sites for planting this resilient alternative species in the face of climate change.
Keywords
maximal entropy, Ceratonia siliqua L., Morocco, environmental variables
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