Original research article
The Influence of Average Annual Climatic Indicators on Agricultural Productivity: Considering the Threshold Effect
2025, 90 (1) p. 7-19
Hamza Khalilov, Firdovsi Fikratzade, Ramil Huseyn
Abstract
The article examines the effects of average annual temperatures, the average annual amount of precipitation and carbon emissions per capita on changes in the overall indicator of productivity in agriculture. The volume produced per one ha of agricultural land in real (physical) terms based on the data for six decades is considered. Econometric analyses show that there is a threshold effect in the impact of the average annual temperature and the average annual precipitation on changes in agricultural productivity. Findings demonstrate that the changes in quantitative indicators for average temperature and precipitation up to a certain point and changes in agricultural productivity stemming from these factors occur in the same direction. In this case, the scale of the observed influence increases with the increase in climate indicators. After each of the specified factors reaches a certain critical level, changes in them and in the level of the agricultural productivity move in opposite directions. Thus, the scale of the effect on productivity grows according to the increase of both climate indicators; however, the average indicators of temperature and precipitation have a negative effect on productivity after a certain critical threshold, and the magnitude of the negative effect increases in accordance with the increase of the climatic indicators. Critical values have been calculated for these climatic factors, the excess of which will lead to a slowdown in growth and a decrease in the overall productivity in agriculture.
Keywords
Climate changes, average climate indicators, agriculture, agricultural productivity, drought
Download Find similar journal articles